Glitches in the Fear Matrix

The establishment’s initial response to Covid-19 was two months of coverups and gross incompetence, to the extent that one could be forgiven for thinking that they spread it on purpose.  Now in true 1984 style, they have deftly shifted the narrative to stampede us into accepting a permanent state of emergency, totalitarian social and economic controls, censorship, outrageous bailouts, destruction of small businesses, commie terror famines, election fraud, war with China, and a vaccine.  Bill Gates wants to force us to get a mark that will serve as proof of vaccine.  Commie governors have decided that they like their new dictatorial powers and they won’t give them up without a fight.  It’s coming.  Western governments’ cures are worse than the disease and this will lead to long-overdue revolts.  I will try to write about all this later but I am busy with gardening and other stuff.  This is the dry season for blogging.  But there is something I have to write about now.

Remember the simulation which was used to stampede us into lockdown? Imperial College just released the code.  It’s bloated, poorly organized, poorly documented, and has few self-checks.  The code for handling inputs makes me want to tear my eyes out.  Overall, CovidSim looks like the kind of program that will turn out to be infested with bugs. This is my professional opinion based on twelve years’ worth of jobs that involved heavy simulation programming, plus an hour of gawking at CovidSim.  Microsoft had a big-name consultant put lipstick on this pig, but according to another programmer, “the damage from over a decade of amateur hobby programming is so extensive that even Microsoft were unable to make it run right“.  The notorious hacker 4chan has chimed in with a thread full of arcane mockery.

We are not allowed to see the original code.  We will never be able to replicate the original results because the program gives significantly different results each time it is run, even when it is given the same random number seed.  This is a symptom of bugs.  There could be race conditions, i.e. multiple threads tripping over shared data, or there could be pointer bugs, or both.  Pointer bugs are common in sloppy C code.  They cause serious data-scrambling.

For background:  Using random numbers is not suspicious.  If I was an epidemiologist I would write a Monte Carlo simulation to model the inherent randomness of the pandemic. I would sample human behavior and viral spread from shifting probability distributions, I would do multiple runs with different random number seeds, etc.  I would use random numbers everywhere.  But I would make sure I could repeat my results.  This is possible because computer-generated random numbers aren’t truly random, but they do have the statistical properties of randomness if you use a good random number generator.

Prof. Neil Ferguson used a custom random number generator.  4chan thought this was hilarious, because whenever someone tries to reinvent the wheel in Rube Goldberg style, bugs creep in. Custom RNGs are fiddly and these days they are not worth the time and risk for small gains, but this was not always the case. There was a time before 4chan was born when custom RNGs could be justified.  Compilers used to come with bad random number generators. Ferguson used a variant of a better RNG which was discovered by L’Ecuyer in 1988. Variants floated around in textbooks for years and Ferguson may have used one of these, plus a little bit of extra code to manage random number seeds across multiple threads at a time when parallel computing libraries weren’t widely available. Maybe it’s a good RNG, maybe it isn’t, I’m not going to waste more time chasing this thing.  I’m a bit more concerned about how the original simulation programmers sampled random numbers from probability distributions. They copied thousands of lines of indigestible spaghetti code from math journals of the 70s-80s. This was the way to do things at the time.  This was for the part of the algorithm where scarce CPU cycles had to be saved at any cost.  There WILL be bugs.  Modern math libraries implement these functions much more reliably, but tearing out rand.cpp was one of those tediuos back-burner jobs that never got done, and now Ferguson is caught with his pants down.  One can only hope that any bugs serious enough to affect the conclusions would have been caught decades ago.

Some fossilized code from CovidSim’s rand.cpp.  This is what told us to stop the world. This particular snippet is probably not as bad as it looks but here’s my rotten tomato anyway:  “Hello 1984 Neil, this is 2020 Neil.  I’m writing a Fear Matrix.  It’s to help Bill Gates use genetically engineered airborne batshit-AIDS to summon the devil and fight President Trump and his army of autistic Nazi clown-fetishists…  It’s complicated. Just trust me.  Anyways the random number stuff alone is 2400 lines long and it needs to run with GWBasic on a Commodore 64… Look, can you please send the Commodore 64 through the wormhole before Mom throws it out?  Also send that big box of tangled of in-series Christmas lights (GOTOs), the alphabet blocks (meaningless short variable names), and my rock collection (hardcoded constants).  It’s all for Big Science.  The future depends on it.  BTW, don’t smoke synthetic weed when it comes out.  It will fuck both of us.  Trust me.”

When confronted about bugs, Ferguson essentially said “Don’t worry, the bugs will average out after enough runs, and anyways they are going to be less important than all the inputs we’ll get wrong and all the social effects which are impossible to simulate, but everyone should trust us because we’re experts. So can we just get a global police state before everyone dies, plus some more money to keep working on our code? Please think of the children!” I’ve seen this attitude before. I don’t think he’s a cultist or anything sinister. I think he’s just another egghead lost in his ivory tower.  [UPDATE: Ferguson’s research is funded by an alphabet soup of fake-humanitarian NGOs that serve as fronts for Bill Gates and other vaccine-pushing globalist technocrats.  They’re all as thick as thieves.  Read this.  The rabbit hole is deep.]

Here’s the crux of the issue.  Even pointer bugs are a minor hazard when compared to the real danger of trusting simulations by anointed “experts”:  Their simulations are often built on false assumptions and oversimplifications which lead to politically pre-ordained results, i.e. assume that regulations have no side effects, assume most public officials aren’t driven by greed and powerlust, assume central banks can print meat, assume people are interchangeable economic units, assume commies won’t let drug dealers out of jail in order to lock up hairdressers and fine them $7000 if they refuse to apologize to a judge, etc.  Absurd assumptions are the best because they tend to be politically sacrosanct, so academic toadies build them into their simulations without even mentioning them, and the entire establishment runs cover. The simulations always have more switches and dials than a 747 cockpit, thus giving policy-makers the illusion of control (CovidSim is no exception). The more inputs, the easier it is to get the desired output, while covering up the fact that the inputs are highly uncertain and the simulation’s foundation is built on sand.

Ferguson spent the last 20 years using this simulation to model epidemics including foot and mouth disease, mad cow disease, swine flu, SARS, MERS, Ebola and Zika.  His predictions were spectacularly wrong.  In 2005 he predicted that up to 200 million people could be killed by an imminent bird flu pandemic.  He predicted that half a million people would die of COVID-19 in Britain and 2.2 million would die in America if governments did nothing. This has not happened because the disease is less dangerous than early reports suggested, and because fear leads to voluntary social distancing which leads to reduced spread. A disease can flatten its own curve.  This seems to be what has happened in Britain, America, and Sweden.  Ferguson admitted that something like this could happen but since he had no way to model it, he gave the government the do-nothing numbers and everyone repeated them. Meanwhile, he was ignoring his own lockdown advice to sleep with his polyamorous girlfriend who is a professional left-wing activist and a public advocate of social distancing.  Ferguson has since resigned over this.

Britain and America had lockdowns while Sweden famously did not. Somewhere in my notes I have a snarky comment about how the Islamo-Feminist Rape Caliphate of Sweden must have decided that it would be racist to place any restrictions on the New Swedes, and it would also be good to get rid of the deplorable Old Swedes who reminisce about Old Sweden while taking up public housing space which is needed for New Swedes. I should have known something else was going on when the media showed sudden concern for the Old Swedes. It looks like Sweden will pull through this with much less economic damage and not many more COVID-19 deaths than Britain. They will live to pay for their own ethnic replacement another day.

Know what this reminds me of?  Global Warming.  Agenda 21.  Hockey stick graphs.  Bug burgers.  Al Gore doing a speaking tour in his private jet.  The Patriot Act.  See something, say something.  Crash of ’08.  Nobody could have forseen.  We have to pass it to see what’s in it.  I’ll tell you what’s in it.  This smells like the biggest Shit Sandwich the NWO has ever stomped down our throats.

I’m not saying the virus is just a flu.  I don’t trust the California antibody studies which said 98% of people are asymptomatic.  The rate of positive tests was within the margin of error of the test itself, i.e. the test was statistically useless.  Maybe it was detecting false positives from the other coronaviruses which cause colds.  COVID-19 is most definitely NOT a cold, it can be a debilitating or deadly illness, but the government “cure” is obviously part of a NWO agenda which overall is worse than the disease.  Time to open up.  Let those who are paranoid be paranoid.  Report the number of infections in each town so people can social distance accordingly.  Let those who want to work take their chances.  Encourage mask use.  Provide protection and testing so people can work safely.  Stop paying people more to sit at home than to work.  End the lockdowns which are harming small businesses while Wall Street slurps at the public slop trough.  Research prophylactic treatment.  Throw the kitchen sink at the virus, i.e. hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin + zinc + aspirin + ivermectin + Vit. C + Vit. D + quercitin + blood thinners, then pare back to the combo that works best.  If lockdowns go on too long then opioids and tooth abscesses will kill more people than the virus.

Recall power-mad vindictive governors like Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, who used her emergency powers as a political bludgeon.  She banned sale of seeds and gardening supplies, but allowed sales of weed and lottery tickets.  She threatened to punish doctors who prescribed hydroxychloroquine because Orange Man Bad.   Things have gotten so crazy that the Michigan Militia had an armed protest at the capital.  Beneath the surface, people are organizing.  This is good news.

The globalists became so arrogant they got sloppy. People are waking up.  There are millions of capable people who would go along to get along, as long as the system kept them comfortable, but now they are suddenly thrown into a world of uncertainty and they can see that inequality isn’t what the Left says it is.  These capable people feel like their futures have been stolen from them and they are very pissed off.  I can tell from my web traffic that huge numbers people spent March and April sitting at home researching conspiracy theories. They weren’t just reading about the coronavirus, they were reading about the entire power structure.  The globalists think we’re so dumb that it doesn’t matter if some of us notice their scams, because the brainwashed masses outvote us or narc on us.  Maybe the globalists are right about this.  But another part of the dynamic is that they are so arrogant that they think they understand how the world works.  They think they can control every knob that matters.  They think their edicts become reality.  They surround themselves with yes-men and thus become blind.  They forgot the first rule of running a cult:  Never drink your own kool-aid.

Hacker 4chan sums it up:

TL; DR: The predictive models being used are about as accurate as reading the future in the entrails of a goat…

The ultimate redpill is that the people in charge ARE malicious, but their constant incompetence and ability to fuck things up on a regular basis are what allow what freedoms we do possess to continue to be enjoyed. The malevolent spectre that hangs over humanity would already be absolutely dominant instead of 95% dominant if it wasn’t for human error. If it wasn’t for them fucking up there wouldn’t be any knowledge of them.